Saturday, 2 November 2013

The worlds biggest carbon experiment

The worlds biggest carbon 14 experiment

In the previous post, the idea that C14 concentrations in air (or at least C14/CO2) have not changed is put forward.   This has been true for tens of thousands of years and likely for tens of thousands more, but it is not actually true for the 20th century.   Consider the graph below of C14 in the second half of the 20th century.

How could you test whether fossil fuel CO2 stays in the air?    This is used as a primary premise of those who argue the increase in CO2 from fossil fuel since industrialization is the whole cause of near simultaneous global warming.

Also consider how a scientist would test my hypothesis that man made fossil fuel CO2 disappears into the huge reserve of CO2, 98% (50x) dissolved in the world oceans.    How could you see whether the 50% increase in aerial CO2 was man made?

First, make some CO2 radioactive and release it into the air and measure its concentration over time.   According to warmists, it should stay in the air forever.

Big things happened after WWII, a big blip on the horizontal line of C14 vs time.  The experiment has already been done on a massive world scale.    The results are indisputable.    Mankind doubled the amount of C14O2 in the atmosphere in 1963.    Consider the graph of C14O2 against time.

Note1: C14 was only discovered in 1942
Note2: The 100% on the Y axis refers to the constant percentage of Modern Carbon (pMC).   It is proven to be very nearly constant for tens of thousands of years.

This graph teaches us many things.
1. C14 remained constant up to and including WWII, so all the fossil fuels release in the first half of the 20th century did nothing to dilute C14.
2. C14 climbed very rapidly with the bomb explosions, especially H bombs.
3. You can see an interesting lag and drop even between the Northern hemisphere and the southern hemisphere.
4. The C14 amount in 1963 is double the 100% long term pMC
5. C14 rapidly vanishes (on an exponential curve) with a half life of around 17 years. (from 1963 to 1970 when the concentration is 150%).
6. C14 mass in the air it is heading back to the old 100% figure, as if the 20th century CO2 did not exist.
(for the buffs, you can prove this as the log of this curve is a straight line, showing the decay is exponential to a horizontal asymptote)
7. there is a 2 1/2 year delay between CO2 released in the Northern Hemisphere and when it appears in the Southern Hemisphere.   The drop in % between North and South in this time confirms the behaviour.

So the unanswerable questions
Q1. Why was C14 constant up to 1955 in the face of WWI, WWII and industrialization? (there are better graphs showing this, back to 1920)
Q2. Why is it heading straight back to the age old level and not a lower level, reflecting the fact that fossil fuel has no C14?
Q3. How can radioactive CO2 vanish in only say 50 years when the half life is 5700 years?
Q4. Why does the fossil fuel CO2 not dilute the aerial CO2 to 67% for at least a few times 5700 years?
Q4. Where exactly has all the radioactive C14 gone?  

Remember, this is CO2 albeit with C14, chemically almost identical to standard CO2.    It is not just C14 which has vanished, but all the other CO2 of which it was a tiny part.   This indicates that all CO2 of this age has vanished, all of it, the entire amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in 1955 is now gone!

I have to point out, as a Nuclear Physicist, that you cannot unmake C14.   No power on earth can do this.   A nuclear accelerator can change the occasional nucleus, but not every one.    We can turn lead into gold, maybe, but only one atom at a time.    That is why we cannot dispose of radioactive waste.

The only place we are certain the C14 has gone is out of the atmosphere.

Q5. If this massive quantity of man made tagged CO2 vanishes quickly somewhere, why not all the man made CO2?

It has taken a number of atom bombs, but we know conclusively, unequivocally that man made CO2 released into the atmosphere vanishes.     We also know the fossil fuel, lacking any C14 has also vanished.
They are in the same place.   98% of all CO2 is in the oceans, so 98% of the fossils fuels are in the oceans and 98% of the C14 is in the oceans.

Of course you could say, just measure the C14 in the oceans.   However remember that the ocean CO2 is 50x that of the air.   So is the C14.     CO2 concentrations vary dramatically with temperature from the arctic to the equator, so looking for a 2% variation is near impossible.   We just know it is all gone or nearly gone.

One last comment.  The reason man made C14 free CO2 (virgin CO2 if you like) vanishes it that CO2 levels are set and maintained by the laws of physical chemistry.   The CO2 in the air is maintained in a very strict ratio of the vastly greater CO2 in the water.   So if new CO2 turns up, it is nearly all absorbed without trace, at least 98% of it.  Just like the C14O2.
A real problem for all proponents of man made CO2 increases, is to explain why this would not happen, why CO2 would not just vanish into the oceans, why the normal laws of equilibrium of gases in solution would not operate in the oceans?  

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